By Staff Report
Storm forecasters have further downgraded their outlooks a little more than a month into the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which has so far produced only one named storm.
For a season initially expected to be “somewhat below normal,” researchers at Colorado State University on Wednesday reduced their projections for the number of named storms and the overall duration of activity, saying they now anticipate a “well below-normal season.”
A day earlier, private forecasting firm AccuWeather also lowered its projected range for the number of named storms expected to develop in the Atlantic basin.
Both forecasts point to moderate El Niño conditions that are expected to strengthen into a strong El Niño by mid-September, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1.
El Niño is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The resulting changes in wind patterns can disrupt weather systems across the United States and around the world.
“Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages,” Colorado State University said Wednesday. “We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.”
Vertical wind shear typically weakens or disrupts tropical systems.
“El Niño conditions have always been the driver for why we’re expecting numbers near or below the historical average this year,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert. “The stronger the El Niño gets, the fewer named storms we’re likely to get. Back in 2015, we had a strong El Niño and got 11 named storms. I think that is the sweet spot again this year.”
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 to 15 named storms, with about seven becoming hurricanes.
AccuWeather, which initially forecast 11 to 16 named storms, now predicts eight to 14 named storms this season. It continues to forecast four to seven hurricanes, with two to four reaching major hurricane strength. The company also expects three to five storms to directly impact the United States.
“The northern and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and the northeastern Caribbean remain higher-than-average risk areas, where storms can develop rapidly,” AccuWeather said in a statement.
Colorado State University also noted there is a “below-average probability” that a major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline, while cautioning that “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”
The university now forecasts nine named storms, down from 13 in its initial April outlook and 11 in its June update.
Researchers also lowered the expected number of hurricanes to four, down from six in April and five in June.
The forecast calls for a total of 35 days of named storm activity this season, down from 45 days in the June outlook. A typical season averages 69.4 days of storm activity.
The number of major hurricanes — Category 3 or stronger with sustained winds of at least 111 mph — was reduced to one, down from two in previous forecasts.
As of Wednesday, Tropical Storm Arthur remains the only named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season. Arthur made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on June 18, bringing flash flooding and tornadoes.
Last year, the Atlantic produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes, including four major hurricanes.
None of the 2025 storms made a direct landfall in Florida or elsewhere in the United States.
From 2022 through 2024, however, Florida was directly impacted by six hurricanes, including four that reached Category 3 strength or higher.
AMBER PATINO 