Potential local impacts from T.D. Fred

PANAMA CITY —
Fred is expected to gain strength back to a tropical storm by Saturday.
The storm will have to deal with wind shear and a less than ideal
environment for a tropical system. The wind shear should keep the
intensity down from gaining strength above a tropical storm. There is
the off-chance
the storm could really fight off the shear it could make it to a
Category 1 hurricane. This scenario does not look probable but is not
impossible. 

The
forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is for the storm to
move into the Panhandle Sunday night and Monday morning as a 40-50 mph
Tropical Storm. The biggest impacts could be isolated flooding and poor
beach conditions where rip currents would be common for a few days. 

Rainfall
should be in the 1 to 4 inches range across the area. A few locations
could see heavier amounts where rain bands set up and linger. Isolated
flash flooding and some river flooding will be possible.  

The
rainfall totals will largely depend on the final track of the system. A
stronger system farther to the west will bring more rain, and a system
farther to the east will bring less rain. 

Wind speeds and gusts
again will be track-dependent. The east side of the circulation will
bring the greatest winds. As it stands now, with a shift to the west,
gusts across the Panhandle could range from 25-45 mph. The east side of
the storm would see the higher range of wind gusts, up to 55 mph. Any
shifts in the size or strength of the storm could also increase the
effects on the area. 

For
now, Fred is expected to remain a weak system as it slowly strengthens
and moves to our area. The impacts are expected to be minor, but we are
still several days out
and the tropics can and do change quickly. Make sure to keep up with
the latest updates and have your tropical weather plans/preparations
made.